PERT Duration Calculation

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Mathematical Analysis 

Definition: Mathematical analysis involves calculating theoretical early and late start and finish dates for all project activities without regard for any resource pool limitations. The resulting dates are not the schedule, but rather indicate the time periods within which the activity could be scheduled, given resource limits and other known constraints.
The most widely known mathematical analysis techniques are:
• Critical Path Method (CPM)—calculates a single, deterministic early and late start and finish date for each activity based on specified, sequential network logic and a single duration estimate. The focus of CPM is calculating float to determine which activities have the least scheduling flexibility. The underlying CPM algorithms are often used in other types of mathematical analysis
• Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT)—allows for probabilistic treatment of both network logic and activity
duration estimates (i.e., some activities may not be performed at all, some may be performed only in part, and others may be performed more than once)
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)—uses a weighted average duration estimate to calculate activity durations. Although there are surface differences, PERT differs from CPM primarily in that it uses the distribution's mean
(expected value) instead of the most likely estimate originally used in CPM. PERT itself is seldom used today.

Acceptance Level:  Generally accepted

Alternative or Related Terms: Network Analysis; Critical Path Method, Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT), Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Application Areas/Intended Uses: Mathematical analysis is a tool for developing a project schedule.

Chief Advantages: Provides a process for identifying early and late start and finish dates for the uncompleted portions of project activities.

Additional Reading:
Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling, Sixth Edition. Harold Kerzner. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1998.